Lowcountry Aerospace Workers: The COBRA Month-4 Cliff Nobody Warned You About

Last Tuesday I sat across from a machinist who had been at the North Charleston campus for eleven years. He was laid off in late January as part of the 17,000-position restructuring, and he had done exactly what his separation packet told him to do. He elected COBRA. For three months, the subsidized premium felt manageable. Then the month 4 invoice arrived and the number had tripled.

He thought something was wrong. It was not wrong. It was just month 4.

If you are one of the 220-plus Lowcountry aerospace workers who were separated in the January 2025 wave, or one of the additional rounds that have continued into 2026 as the restructuring plays out, you are either approaching the COBRA month-4 cliff right now or you already hit it. This post is for you. I am going to walk through exactly what happened with your COBRA pricing, what your marketplace options actually cost in Dorchester and Charleston counties, and the specific steps to take this week so you do not end up uninsured.

How the Severance COBRA Subsidy Works

When a large employer like the North Charleston aerospace facility lays off workers, the severance package often includes a temporary COBRA subsidy. Here is how the structure has worked for most of the recent layoff waves.

Months 1 through 3: The company subsidizes a significant portion of your COBRA premium. You pay a reduced rate - sometimes as low as the same employee contribution you were paying while employed. For many workers, that has been somewhere in the $150 to $300 per month range for individual coverage and $400 to $700 for family coverage. That feels familiar because it is essentially what you were paying out of your paycheck before the layoff.

Month 4 and beyond: The subsidy ends. You are now responsible for the full COBRA premium, which includes both the employee share and the employer share, plus a 2% administrative fee. For a mid-tier PPO or HMO plan at a large aerospace employer in South Carolina, full-price COBRA in 2026 typically lands in these ranges:

• Individual coverage: $700 to $900 per month
• Employee plus spouse: $1,400 to $1,700 per month
• Family (employee plus spouse plus children): $1,800 to $2,200 per month

Those are real numbers from COBRA continuation notices I have reviewed with clients in my Summerville office this spring. The jump from month 3 to month 4 is not a small bump. It is a cliff. A family that was paying $500 per month suddenly owes $2,000. That is a $1,500 monthly increase overnight, and it arrives at exactly the moment when the severance check is running thin and the unemployment benefits are not covering what they used to.

The Month-4 Math: COBRA vs. Marketplace

Here is where I need you to stop and run the numbers with me, because for most Lowcountry aerospace workers in their 40s and 50s, the marketplace is dramatically cheaper than full-price COBRA starting in month 4. I see this pattern every single time.

Full-price COBRA for a 47-year-old individual (month 4): approximately $750 to $850 per month, depending on which plan option you elected. No premium tax credits apply to COBRA. You pay that full amount regardless of your income.

Marketplace Silver plan for a 47-year-old in zip code 29418 (North Charleston) or 29483 (Summerville):

• BCBS Blue Silver: approximately $520 to $620 per month pre-subsidy
• Ambetter Balanced Care Silver: approximately $440 to $540 per month pre-subsidy
• Molina Silver: approximately $400 to $490 per month pre-subsidy

Those are sticker prices. Now factor in the premium tax credit. If you are collecting unemployment and your projected annual household income for 2026 is in the $25,000 to $50,000 range, you qualify for a substantial subsidy. A 47-year-old with a projected income of $35,000 in Dorchester County could see a net monthly premium on a Silver plan as low as $120 to $250 per month. Compare that to $800 for full-price COBRA. The savings can reach $500 to $600 every single month.

For families, the difference is even more stark. Full-price COBRA for a family of four might be $2,100 per month. A marketplace family plan with premium tax credits could be $300 to $600 per month depending on income. I have seen families save over $1,500 a month by making this switch at the right time.

The 2026 subsidy cliff context. If you have been reading about the ACA subsidy cliff, you might be worried. Yes, the enhanced subsidies that were in place from 2021 through 2025 expired at the end of 2025. The subsidy schedule returned to the pre-2021 structure, which means households above 400% of the Federal Poverty Level (roughly $62,000 for a single person in 2026) lose all premium tax credits. But here is the thing most laid-off aerospace workers need to hear: if your income dropped because of the layoff, your projected 2026 income is probably well below that cliff. Unemployment income counts toward your MAGI, but it is usually much less than your working income. For most of the workers I have helped this spring, the subsidies are still significant.

The 60-Day Window You Cannot Miss

Here is the part that matters most and the part I see people get wrong. When you lose employer-sponsored coverage - whether through layoff, COBRA expiration, or voluntarily dropping COBRA - you trigger a 60-day Special Enrollment Period (SEP) on the ACA marketplace. That 60-day clock starts on the date you actually lose coverage, not the date of the layoff.

If your COBRA runs out because you stopped paying: The date your coverage terminated is day one. You have 60 days from that date to enroll in a marketplace plan through Healthcare.gov.

If you decide to drop COBRA voluntarily: Same rule. The day your COBRA coverage ends after you stop paying is the trigger date. You have 60 days.

If you let month 4 arrive and you just do not pay the invoice: COBRA gives you a 30-day grace period to make the premium payment. If you do not pay within that grace period, your coverage is retroactively terminated to the last day of the period you paid for. That retroactive termination date is your SEP trigger.

Here is where I need to be very direct with you. Do not wait until day 59. I have had aerospace workers call me on day 55 of their 60-day window and we got it done, but it was stressful and there was zero margin for error. Healthcare.gov can be slow. Document uploads take time. If there is a question about your income verification, you need days to resolve it, not hours.

My recommendation: Start the marketplace application within two weeks of knowing you are going to drop COBRA. If your month-4 COBRA invoice arrived this week and you know you are not going to pay it, start the marketplace application today.

What You Can Actually Buy on the Marketplace in 2026

Let me get specific about what a Silver-tier marketplace plan looks like for a typical aerospace worker in the 29418 or 29483 zip codes. Silver is the tier I recommend for most people in this situation because it hits the sweet spot of premium cost, deductible, and out-of-pocket maximum, and if your income qualifies, Silver plans come with cost-sharing reductions that lower your deductible and copays beyond what the premium credit alone does.

For a single 45-year-old in Dorchester County (29483):

Plan	Monthly Premium (pre-subsidy)	Deductible	Out-of-Pocket Max
BCBS Blue Silver	~$560	$4,500	$8,700
Ambetter Balanced Care Silver	~$480	$4,000	$8,200
Molina Marketplace Silver	~$430	$3,800	$7,900

With a premium tax credit at $35,000 income, your net monthly cost on the Ambetter Silver could be roughly $150 to $200. And if your income qualifies for cost-sharing reductions (below 250% FPL, roughly $36,000 for a single person), your deductible and copays drop further on a Silver plan specifically.

For a family of four in Charleston County (29418):

Plan	Monthly Premium (pre-subsidy)	Deductible (family)	Out-of-Pocket Max (family)
BCBS Blue Silver	~$1,680	$9,000	$17,400
Ambetter Balanced Care Silver	~$1,440	$8,000	$16,400
Molina Marketplace Silver	~$1,290	$7,600	$15,800

With premium tax credits at a household income of $55,000 for a family of four, net monthly cost could be $350 to $550 for a family Silver plan. Compare that to $2,100 for full-price COBRA. The difference funds groceries for months.

Network note: BCBS SC has the broadest provider network in the Lowcountry, including Roper St. Francis, MUSC, and most Summerville-area physicians. Ambetter’s network is narrower but has grown in 2026 and includes Summerville Medical Center and several North Charleston primary care practices. Molina is the most affordable but has the smallest network. If you have a doctor you want to keep, check the carrier’s provider directory before you enroll, or call me and I will check for you.

What to Do This Week If You Are Approaching Month 4

Here is the action list. Print this out or screenshot it. Do these things in this order.

Step 1: Find your COBRA continuation notice. This is the document you received (or should have received) within 44 days of your layoff. It lists the plans available, the full monthly premium for each, and the election deadlines. If you cannot find it, call the former employer’s benefits administrator and ask for a copy.

Step 2: Check your COBRA payment status. Are you current through month 3? Did you already miss a payment? Know exactly where you stand. If you have already missed the month-4 payment and the 30-day grace period has passed, your COBRA has terminated and your 60-day marketplace SEP is already running.

Step 3: Gather your income documentation. For the marketplace application, you need your projected 2026 annual income. If you are on unemployment, that is your weekly benefit times the remaining weeks in the year, plus any other household income (spouse’s wages, investment income, side work). If you have started a new job at lower pay, use that salary. Healthcare.gov uses projected annual income, not your old aerospace salary.

Step 4: Go to Healthcare.gov or call me. You can start a marketplace application at Healthcare.gov and select “lost job-based coverage” as your qualifying event. Upload your COBRA notice or termination letter as proof. Or call me at (843) 594-1759 and I will walk through it with you. I help Lowcountry families with this exact transition every week.

Step 5: Pick a plan and confirm your effective date. If you enroll by the 15th of the month, coverage typically starts the 1st of the following month. If you enroll after the 15th, coverage starts the 1st of the month after that. Timing matters if you want to minimize any gap.

The Blinco Audit: Bring Your Paperwork, I Will Bring the Math

The Blinco Audit is what I call my four-step process - Uncover, Decode, Compare, Protect - and it is exactly what I do with every aerospace worker who sits down in my office during this transition.

Uncover: Bring your COBRA continuation notice and your last pay stub from the aerospace job. I need to see what your COBRA costs actually are and what your income picture looks like.

Decode: I translate the COBRA notice into plain English. Most of these notices are 8 to 12 pages of legalese that nobody reads. I have read hundreds of them. I know what to look for.

Compare: I run the marketplace numbers side by side with your COBRA cost. I check every Silver and Bronze plan available in your zip code, apply your estimated premium tax credit, and show you the actual monthly cost for each option. I also check whether your current doctors are in-network on each plan.

Protect: We pick the plan, enroll, and confirm the effective date. I make sure there is no gap or, if there is a short gap, that you understand exactly when your new coverage starts and what to do in the interim.

This appointment takes about 45 minutes. There is no charge to you - I am compensated by the carriers. You leave with a plan in place and a coverage start date on the calendar.

The Timeline: Where Are You Right Now?

If you were laid off in January 2025, here is roughly where your calendar stands:

• Months 1-3 (February through April 2025): Subsidized COBRA. Manageable premiums. This window is closed.
• Month 4 (May 2025): Full-price COBRA. The cliff. This is where most of you are right now.
• 60-day SEP window: Running from the date your subsidized COBRA ended or the date you stop paying full-price COBRA. If you stop paying the May invoice and the grace period expires in June, your SEP runs through roughly late July or early August.
• Danger zone: If you do nothing and your 60-day window closes, you cannot enroll in marketplace coverage until Open Enrollment in November for January 2027 coverage. That is potentially six months or more without insurance.

If you were laid off in a later wave - February, March, or a 2026 round - shift these dates accordingly. The math is the same. Three months of subsidized COBRA, then the cliff, then the 60-day window.

A Note About Severance and Income Timing

One thing that catches people off guard during the marketplace application: severance pay counts as income in the year you receive it. If you received a lump-sum severance in January or February, that amount is part of your 2025 income for tax purposes, but the marketplace uses your projected 2026 income for 2026 coverage. Make sure you are entering your expected 2026 income on the application, not your 2025 income. If you are currently on unemployment and do not expect to return to full aerospace wages this year, your projected 2026 income may be significantly lower, which means a larger premium tax credit.

You Are Not Stuck

I have worked with dozens of Lowcountry aerospace families through this exact transition over the last year. The restructuring has been hard on this community. Summerville, North Charleston, Goose Creek, Ladson - these are the neighborhoods where aerospace workers live, and they are my neighbors.

The COBRA month-4 cliff feels like a wall. It is not. It is a door. The marketplace exists specifically for this moment, and the 60-day SEP is your key. You just have to use it before it expires.

If you are looking at that month-4 invoice right now and your stomach dropped, call me. My number is (843) 594-1759. Bring your COBRA notice, your last pay stub, and 45 minutes. I don’t stop until you’re covered.

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Michelle Blinco Smith, Licensed Insurance Producer (Health, Life, Accident and Sickness) - South Carolina NPN 20072458 - 6 years experience

Michelle Blinco Smith is an independent insurance broker and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Boeing or any aerospace employer. Plan details reflect publicly available information as of May 2026 and may change. COBRA premium estimates are based on typical large-employer plan costs in the Charleston/Dorchester County area and your actual premiums may differ. Marketplace premium estimates are based on 2026 plan data from Healthcare.gov for Dorchester and Charleston counties and are subject to change. Premium tax credit amounts depend on household size, income, and other factors determined by the IRS and Healthcare.gov.